ABSTRACT
PurposeDecision-making problems in emergency plan selection for epidemic prevention and control (EPAC) are generally characterized by risky and uncertainty due to multiple possible emergency states and vagueness of decision information. In the process of emergency plan selection for EPAC, it is necessary to consider several obvious features, i.e. different states of epidemics, dynamic evolvement process of epidemics and decision-makers' (DMs') psychological factors such as risk preference and loss aversion.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, a novel decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is proposed to solve emergency plan selection of an epidemic problem, which is generally regarded as hybrid-information multi-attribute decision-making (HI-MADM) problems in major epidemics. Initially, considering the psychological factors of DMs, the expectations of DMs are chosen as reference points to normalize the expectation vectors and decision information with three different formats. Subsequently, the matrix of gains and losses is established according to the reference points. Furthermore, the prospect value of each alternative is obtained and the comprehensive prospect values of alternatives under different states are calculated. Accordingly, the ranking of alternatives can be obtained.FindingsThe validity and robustness of the proposed method are demonstrated by a case calculation of emergency plan selection. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis and comparison analysis with fuzzy similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) method and TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for interactive and MADM) method illustrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.Originality/valueAn emergency plan selection method is proposed for EPAC based on CPT, taking into account the psychological factors of DMs.HighlightsThis paper proposes a new CPT-based EDM method for EPAC under a major epidemic considering the psychological factorsof DMs, such as risk preference, loss aversion and so on.The authors' work gives approaches of normalization, comparison and distance measurement for dealing with the integration of three hybrid formats of attributes.This article gives some guidance, which contributes to solve the problems of risk-based hybrid multi-attribute EDM.The authors illustrate the advantages of the proposed method by a sensitivity analysis and comparison analysis with existing FTOPSIS method and TODIM method.
ABSTRACT
Epidemics can bring huge impacts to economic operation and human health, a practical and effective emergency decision-making (EDM) method is of great significance to reduce all kinds of losses and slow the spread of epidemics. In the process of EDM, decision information is usually uncertain and vague, and the psychological behaviors and various perspectives of decision makers (DMs) should be considered. Hence, this paper develops a group emergency decision-making (GEDM) method under risk based on the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy set (PHFS) and cumulative prospect theory (CPT), in which probabilistic hesitant fuzzy prospect set (PHFPS) that combines PHFS and CPT is developed to portray the vagueness of decision information and psychologies of DMs. Moreover, experts’ creditability in evaluation criteria is generally different because of the differences of their own knowledge structures, practical experience, individual preference and so on. A formula is proposed to measure the quality of decision information provided by experts for revising the expert weights. In addition, the evaluation criteria supporting the GEDM of epidemics are given. Finally, the proposed method is demonstrated by an empirical case study of COVID-19, and the comparison analysis based on the rank-biased overlap model and the sensitivity analysis are conducted to the illustrate the validity of the proposed method.
ABSTRACT
In this paper, an evolutionary game model for the development of panic buying events in COVID-19 is constructed by studying the dynamic process of the public and the government adjusting their strategic choices and playing a continuous game. This paper uses regret theory to depict the public's perceived value of the items in the panic buying situation, describes the characteristics of each stage of the rumors spreading process and the evolution process of panic buying events, and introduces the variable of public critical ability to measure the public's panic buying willingness. The results show that the government's intervention measures according to the characteristics of different stages can effectively control the continuous fermentation time and influence the scope of panic buying events. The implementation of the government's rumor-refutation strategy will also significantly affect the volume of public panic buying, which will help the government timely understand the public's epidemic prevention needs in COVID-19, relieve public panic, and provide a basis for the effective management and scheduling of emergency supplies.